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TUSK Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: TUSK's low price-to-book ratio and mean reverting nature suggest undervaluation, with potential upside as energy demand rebounds.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and negative trends indicate ongoing investor skepticism and potential for further declines, affected by macroeconomic pressures.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate recovery: 40% chance as energy demand increases.

2. Stagnation: 35% chance due to neutral AI forecasts.

3. Decline: 25% chance from economic pressures.



Trading Oracle: Deploy a credit spread, sell TUSK 05/16/2025 5.00 Calls, buy 7.50 Calls. This strategy leverages high implied volatility and bearish sentiment, with high reward:risk ratio and a 3-month outlook.


February 15, 2025


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