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TW Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A bullish case emerges from strong trading volumes, indicating market confidence. With historical return patterns showing potential for gains over extended periods and market trends leaning towards optimism, upside momentum appears likely as earnings approaches.



Bearish Case: The bearish scenario hinges on concerning insider selling and high implied volatilities. Market reactions to earnings or macroeconomic factors could trigger selling pressure, exacerbating risks of a correction in elevated valuations and increasing uncertainties.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued trading volume growth increases the likelihood of 30% returns (40%).

2) Consistent earnings surprises lead to significant rallies (35%).

3) Market correction due to valuation concerns (25%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the TW $135 call and selling the $145 call in November, leveraging strong upcoming trading volumes and positive earnings sentiments. This aligns with the current implied volatility forecast, targeting a potential return of 20% with manageable risk.


October 20, 2024


Tradeweb Markets Forecast

TW        Tradeweb Markets

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TW


LDOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LDOS  Leidos (0.95)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.95)


KIE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIE  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR S&P Insurance (0.95)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.94)


ITA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITA  BTC iShares U.S. Aerospac (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TW


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (0.0)


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (-0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.0)


EWY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWY  iShares MSCI South Korea (0.0)


STAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STAA  Staar Surgical (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TW


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.9)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (-0.91)


SAVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVE  Spirit Airlines (-0.91)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.91)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)







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