TW Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong trading volumes and positive sentiment suggest potential upside. Historical returns show likely positive performance over prolonged holding periods, enhancing bullish sentiment.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility above market averages, coupled with insider selling, suggests investor caution and potential overvaluation, posing risks of correction if profitability doesn't meet expectations.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Continued revenue growth: 40% chance.
  2. Market correction due to valuation: 30% chance.
  3. Stable sideways movement with mixed signals: 30% chance.




Trading Oracle: Opt for a Bullish Short Volatility strategy leveraging the elevated implied volatility and high call volume. This strategy exploits potential volatility and overvaluation corrections, aiming for premium capture through strategic put selling based on Helium's model strengths.



April 17, 2025


Tradeweb Markets Forecast

TW        Tradeweb Markets











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TW



MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.87)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.84)


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (0.82)


FAST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAST  Fastenal (0.81)


UPST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPST  Upstart (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TW



HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.0)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (-0.01)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.02)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (-0.03)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TW



GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.81)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.81)


RCKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCKT  Rocket Pharmaceuticals (-0.83)


CLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLW  Clearwater Paper (-0.83)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.85)









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