TW Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TW's consistent trading volume growth and strategic advancements indicate potential for robust revenue growth, supporting positive price momentum. Strong historical returns over multiple years further bolster optimism.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility coupled with insider selling and overvaluation concerns present risks of a correction. Recent price stagnation and the difference between Helium and market volatility amplify these concerns.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth in trading volume boosts revenue with 40% probability.
  • Market correction due to valuation at 30% probability.
  • Sideways movement due to mixed signals, 30% probability.




Trading Oracle: Consider a cautiously bullish outlook with a call debit spread. Buy April $130 calls, sell $135 calls, leveraging moderate volatility expectations and price forecasts. This balances risk, given positive historical trends and market sentiment. Engage within a 60-day timeframe for maximum strategy effectiveness.



January 31, 2025


Tradeweb Markets Forecast

TW        Tradeweb Markets











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MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.92)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TW



AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.0)


KRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRP  Kimbell Royalty Partners (-0.0)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.01)


TNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNDM  Tandem Diabetes Care (0.01)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TW



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.86)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.87)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.87)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.87)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)









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