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TWO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Stable P/B ratio of 0.9 suggests undervaluation. Potential recovery rooted in strategic acquisitions and market stabilization.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and economic uncertainties may pressure stock prices. Past poor performance and volatility in mortgage spreads raise concerns.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% probability of price increase driven by undervaluation correction.
  • 40% chance of flat performance amid economic uncertainty.
  • 30% risk of price decline from volatility and spread mismanagement.



Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads. Target $13 call options for the medium-term horizon, balancing volatility with P/B ratio undervaluation. Use spreads to define risk and leverage potential stabilization and recovery.


January 30, 2025


Two Harbors Investment Forecast

TWO        Two Harbors Investment

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TWO


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.83)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (0.78)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.77)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.74)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TWO


ED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ED  Consolidated Edison (0.0)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (-0.0)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (0.01)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.01)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TWO


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (-0.66)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (-0.67)


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (-0.67)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (-0.68)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.72)







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