TWO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TWO’s strategic acquisitions and undervalued P/B ratio (0.9) offer potential for price recovery. Positive market sentiment and low volatility may drive gradual appreciation.




Bearish Case: Persistent challenges with net interest spreads and a flat historical return surface suggest risk of stagnation. High implied volatility reflects market uncertainty, potentially hindering price growth.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Steady performance due to strategic improvements (40%).

2. Slight decline from interest rate impacts (30%).

3. Gradual recovery leveraging undervaluation (30%).




Trading Oracle: Engage in Bullish Short Volatility by selling ATM puts while buying OOTM puts. With low IV and Helium model edge, this strategy capitalizes on market stabilization and potential price increase.



March 16, 2025


Two Harbors Investment Forecast

TWO        Two Harbors Investment











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TWO



ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.75)


ATRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATRO  Astronics (0.72)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.63)


OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.62)


ORC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORC  Orchid Island (0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TWO



DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (-0.0)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (0.0)


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (-0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)


RACE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RACE  Ferrari (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TWO



PWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PWR  Quanta Services (-0.6)


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (-0.65)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.65)


NWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NWL  Newell Brands (-0.68)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.72)









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