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TWO Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The strategic acquisition of RoundPoint is projected to enhance earnings by $25-30 million in 2024, potentially driving the stock price upward as market conditions stabilize and investors regain confidence.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and poor management of net interest spreads increase the risk of further stock declines, particularly if economic conditions worsen and earnings reports fail to impress.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings beat expectations (40%);

2. Continued difficulties with net interest spreads cause price drops (35%);

3. Stagnant performance with little change (25%).



Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility, consider executing a bearish put spread targeting $12.0 and buying $11.0 puts for downside protection, optimizing for current market dynamics while anticipating continued volatility.


November 20, 2024


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TWO        Two Harbors Investment

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