Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Under Armour is poised for a comeback, fueled by improved brand collaborations, a strategic loyalty program, and a rebound in the athletic wear market, suggesting strong revenue growth potential.

Bearish Case: Ongoing macroeconomic pressures, intense retail competition, and analyst downgrades threaten Under Armour's recovery, with chances of further price decline looming due to negative consumer sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Brand loyalty initiatives boost sales (40% chance);

2. Adverse economic conditions lead to share price decline (35% chance);

3. Successful Asian market entry enhances revenue (25% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a long call spread on UA's April 2025 $10 calls, selling $12.50 calls to hedge against high volatility. Adjust positions as earnings surprises unfold, targeting potential upward momentum in the next 2-3 months for high reward-risk.

December 15, 2024