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UAN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: With demand for nitrogen fertilizer expected to rise, coupled with recent high call volume and consistent implied volatility near strike prices of $80-$100, UAN could potentially surge back closer to $90, capitalizing on improving fundamentals.



Bearish Case: Persistent oversupply concerns and reduced agricultural imports may push UAN prices lower. Current implied volatility suggests fear in the market, warning of potential dips below $70 if economic conditions worsen or if harvest yields are disappointing.



Potential Outcomes:
  • UAN > $90 (35%): Increased demand spikes pricing.
  • UAN stable around $80 (40%): Market consolidation.
  • UAN < $70 (25%): Heavy oversupply phases.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying UAN 01/17/2025 80.00 C and selling UAN 01/17/2025 85.00 C. This strategy leverages the high volatility while mitigating risk, forecasting short-term momentum towards a recovery. With limited downside risk and potential for robust profit, it capitalizes on UAN's current market conditions.


December 18, 2024


CVR Partners Forecast

UAN        CVR Partners

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