UAN Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers and high dividend yield. Potential upside from recent flat prices and favorable historical returns.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility and negative price momentum from recent years. Backwardation term structure indicates market pessimism.


Potential Outcomes: UAN Price > $90 (30%), Stable ~ $80 (50%), < $70 due to market pessimism (20%).


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July 17, 2024


CVR Partners Forecast

UAN      CVR Partners











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UAN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.0)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.14)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UAN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.0)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.14)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.55)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UAN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.0)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.14)





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