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UCO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent trends indicate stable institutional interest and positive implied volatility, suggesting potential upward price movements for UCO due to market optimism and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.



Bearish Case: Persistently high historical volatility coupled with long-term downward trends indicates that UCO may face continued price pressures, especially if oil demand wanes or geopolitical tensions diminish.



Potential Outcomes:

1. UCO rises to $30 (25%);

2. Price stabilizes around $26 (40%);

3. Drop to $24 (35%). The probabilities are based on recent volatility surfaces and market sentiment.



Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish put credit spread by selling $25.50 puts and buying $24.00 puts, expiring in ~4 days. This trade has a 74% chance of profit and a potential return of 36%, capitalizing on elevated implied volatility and recent market trends.


November 12, 2024


ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Forecast

UCO        ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UCO


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.92)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.87)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.86)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.86)


CVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVE  Cenovus Energy (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UCO


FSLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLY  Fastly (-0.0)


MGK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGK  Vanguard Mega Cap Growth (0.0)


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (0.0)


DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.0)


VEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VEA  Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UCO


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.79)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.79)


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.8)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.84)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.91)







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