UFCS Forecast


Bullish Case: Mean-reverting price action, insider confidence, and undervaluation (P/B < 1) augment likelihood of recovery.


Bearish Case: Persistent declining trends, dividend sustainability concerns, and structural challenges signal further potential decline.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery to P/B parity (30%).

2. Continued decline from operational failures (40%).

3. Stagnant mid-term due to mixed indicators (30%).


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June 27, 2024


United Fire Forecast

UFCS      United Fire











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UFCS



TKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TKR  Timken (0.79)


RMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMD  Resmed (0.76)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.75)


TPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPR  Tapestry (0.75)


MG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MG  Mistras (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UFCS



MTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTDR  Matador Resources (0.0)


ALGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGM  Allegro Microsystems (0.0)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (0.0)


RLAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RLAY  Relay Therapeutics (-0.0)


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UFCS



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.67)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.69)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.69)


HNRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HNRG  Hallador Energy (-0.69)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.7)





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