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UL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Unilever's strategic refocus on sustainability and emerging markets aligns with positive consumer sentiment. Stable implied volatility and a bullish Helium forecast (+0.86%) suggest potential growth.



Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical tensions present risks. Unilever’s controversies, like the Ben & Jerry's issue, could damage brand trust and market performance despite stable volatility.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Strategic sustainability boosts growth (40%).
  2. Regulatory issues impact reputation (30%).
  3. Stable performance due to brand stability (30%).



Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bearish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options and selling further OOTM put options due to potential downside risk from regulatory scrutiny. This leverages Helium's indication of increased volatility ahead, offering potential gains from downside movements.


April 19, 2025


Unilever Forecast

UL        Unilever

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