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ULCC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The recent engine deal and strategic initiatives can potentially drive operational efficiencies, capturing investor optimism and expanding market share despite broader airline industry challenges.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and customer service issues, combined with softening airline demand, indicate potential downside risks, with reputational challenges continuing to weigh on the stock.

Potential Outcomes: Successful execution of engine deal boosts financials (40%).
Further reputational damage impacts demand (30%).
Industry pressures and competition lead to declining margins (20%).
Regulatory challenges dampen expansion (10%).

June 20, 2025

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ULCC Frontier

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