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ULCC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The recent engine deal and strategic initiatives can potentially drive operational efficiencies, capturing investor optimism and expanding market share despite broader airline industry challenges.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and customer service issues, combined with softening airline demand, indicate potential downside risks, with reputational challenges continuing to weigh on the stock.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful execution of engine deal boosts financials (40%).
  • Further reputational damage impacts demand (30%).
  • Industry pressures and competition lead to declining margins (20%).
  • Regulatory challenges dampen expansion (10%).


June 20, 2025


Frontier Forecast

ULCC        Frontier

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