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VAL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Valaris could benefit from increased offshore drilling demand and rising oil prices, which may positively influence revenue growth. Positive volatility in options markets indicates potential for upward movements.



Bearish Case: Potential risks include decreased demand and investor hesitance, exacerbated by institutional sell-offs and geopolitical concerns, which could pressure Valaris' stock further downward.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of upward momentum driven by oil demand increase.

2. 30% chance of flat performance as market factors balance.

3. 30% chance of downward pressure due to geopolitical risks or sustaining sell-offs.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: Buy VAL $50 Call and Sell $55 Call expiring in ~35 days. This captures implied volatility premium while balancing risk. The high-probability setup offers solid reward-to-risk and is well-aligned with market conditions.


December 14, 2024


Valaris Forecast

VAL        Valaris

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OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.84)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.82)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (0.8)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VAL


OTEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTEX  Open Text (0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.0)


SOXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXS  Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (-0.01)


TU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TU  Telus (-0.01)


SCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCS  Steelcase (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VAL


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.78)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.78)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (-0.79)


SBUX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBUX  Starbucks (-0.8)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (-0.85)







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