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VAL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Rising demand for offshore drilling and strategic contracts could boost Valaris. Implied volatility suggests potential upward moves, captured in options strategies, despite recent bearish forecasts.



Bearish Case: Significant price drop and low trading volume indicate market skepticism. High implied volatility and mean reversion suggest potential further declines amid geopolitical and market risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 35% chance of modest growth due to increased offshore drilling demand.
  2. 30% chance of neutral performance from balanced sentiments.
  3. 35% chance of continued decline from market uncertainty and geopolitical risks.



Trading Oracle:

Utilize Bullish Short Volatility strategy. Sell $37.5 strike puts, buy $32.5 puts—expiry in ~27 days. Captures high implied volatility and potential upside amidst flat term structure. Positive historical edge and high odds of profit justify this approach.


March 25, 2025


Valaris Forecast

VAL        Valaris

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