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VDE Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Expect oil price recovery due to potential geopolitical developments and increased demand, boosting VDE price above $140. Market volatility indicates readiness to rise significantly in the coming months as demand rebounds.



Bearish Case: Global economic uncertainty, persistent high inflation, and potential demand destruction from recession fears could push VDE below $120. Increased volatility suggests possible panic sell-offs in adverse conditions.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil price rebounds positively impacting VDE (45%).

2. Continued mean reversion stabilizing prices (35%).

3. Economic headwinds trigger declines (20%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by purchasing the VDE 12/20/2024 135.00 C and selling the 140.00 C. The current low implied volatility allows for cost-effective entry. Aim for a medium-term hold (2-3 months) given market uptrend potential, establishing high reward-to-risk ratio.


November 17, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy Forecast

VDE        Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VDE


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (1.0)


AL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AL  Air Lease Corp (0.89)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.88)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.86)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VDE


NBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NBR  Nabors Industries (-0.0)


BUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUG  Global X Cybersecurity (0.0)


TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.0)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (0.0)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VDE


ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (-0.72)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.73)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.78)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.83)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.98)







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