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Bullish Case: VDE may benefit from an oil price rebound projected at 45%, driven by recovering demand and geopolitical factors. Historical trends suggest significant upside potential, given current low pricing relative to historical peaks.

Bearish Case: Continued mean reversion and global economic headwinds may prevent VDE from realizing gains, suggesting upward movement could be limited. Moreover, institutional selling pressure and deteriorating macro conditions could exacerbate declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil prices rebound and VDE rises (45%).

2. Mean reversion continues, stabilizing VDE (35%).

3. Weak global demand and economic pressures could lead to declines (20%).

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread on VDE with the 08/16/2024 130C and 134C, benefitting from rising implied volatilities. Anticipate a medium-term hold, expected return on risk is favorable, and possible realization of 47% win rate.

August 11, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy Forecast

VDE      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VDE


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (1.0)


ERX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERX  Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares (0.98)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.91)


SM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SM  SM Energy (0.88)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VDE


MCFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCFT  MasterCraft Boat (-0.0)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (0.01)


AWK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AWK  American Water Works (-0.01)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.01)


ARCB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARCB  ArcBest (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VDE


IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (-0.75)


SOXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXX  BTC iShares PHLX Semicond (-0.77)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.86)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRIP  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.96)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.98)



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