VDE Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: A recovery in global oil prices, driven by rising demand and geopolitical tensions, could propel VDE above $140, supported by a decoupling from recent economic headwinds, enhancing investor sentiment.




Bearish Case: Continued weakening in global energy demand and rising inflation may exacerbate economic pressures, potentially dragging VDE down below $120, especially with ongoing volatility and geopolitical uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Oil price recovery driving VDE up to $140 (40%)
  • Mean reversion stabilizing VDE around $125 (30%)
  • Global economic headwinds pushing VDE below $120 (30%)




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: Buy the VDE 12/20/2024 135C, sell 140C. With positive edge and rising volatility, this strategy offers robust profit potential. Target a 36% return as the bullish outlook develops in early 2025.



December 17, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy Forecast

VDE        Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy











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EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.9)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.84)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (0.83)


REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (0.82)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VDE



TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.0)


FPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FPI  Farmland (0.01)


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (-0.01)


ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (-0.01)


IVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVR  Invesco Mortgage (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VDE



YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.69)


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (-0.69)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.75)


ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (-0.78)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.79)









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