VGIT Forecast


Bullish Case: Institutional interest and support for VGIT have been strong (e.g. National Bank of Canada FI's significant positions), which can provide a strong upward momentum in prices.


Bearish Case: Increased recent short interest indicates market skepticism, and the historical price return suggests possible further downside risk over the next few months.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased treasury yields could increase VGIT value (60% probability),

2. Economic decline spurs bond safety buying (30%),

3. Minor price decline due to inflation concerns (10%).


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June 30, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Forecast

VGIT      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VGIT



TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.9)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.9)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.9)


SPTL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTL  Active Trust - SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury (0.88)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VGIT



HPE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPE  Hewlett Packard Enterprise (-0.0)


PG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PG  Procter & Gamble (-0.0)


HLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLF  Herbalife Nutrition (-0.0)


SPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPWR  Sunpower (-0.01)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VGIT



MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.72)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.82)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.83)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.93)





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