VIRT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Virtu's mean-reverting price action and strong algorithmic trading positioning suggest potential gains, aided by market volatility. Recent price increases may drive further investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Regulatory concerns and flat implied volatility term structure indicate potential stagnation or downturn. High-frequency trading risks and reduced confidence from legal pressures add uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:

1) 40%: Continued market volatility boosts trading volumes.

2) 30%: Regulatory and legal challenges impact reputation.

3) 30%: Strategic growth offsets potential declines.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish credit spread by selling VIRT $41 call and buying $43 call, expiring in ~25 days. High market and Helium probability of profit at 72%, offering positive edge with a short-term outlook. Capitalize on flat volatility and potential price stabilization.



January 28, 2025


Virtu Financial Forecast

VIRT        Virtu Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VIRT



TPB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPB  Turning Point Brands (0.97)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.97)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.97)


BCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCS  Barclays (0.96)


EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VIRT



TS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TS  Tenaris S.A. (0.02)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.03)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.03)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.04)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.05)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VIRT



XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.92)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.93)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.93)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.94)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)









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