VIRT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Virtu's role in stabilizing volatile markets and the potential tailwinds from algorithmic trading support price recovery.




Bearish Case: Legal issues and flat implied volatility indicate risk, possibly limiting price growth amidst uncertain sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Increased trading volume boosts performance (40%).
  2. Legal challenges hinder growth (30%).
  3. Strategic partnerships drive modest gains (30%).




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell VIRT $40 call and buy $45 call, expiring in ~57 days. High market and Helium probability of profit at 76% with positive edge and annual potential return of 22%.



December 27, 2024


Virtu Financial Forecast

VIRT        Virtu Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VIRT



GVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GVA  Granite Construction (0.98)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.96)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (0.96)


PPA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPA  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco Aerospace & Defense (0.96)


COOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COOP  Mr. Cooper (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VIRT



FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.0)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.01)


IGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGM  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech Sector (-0.01)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VIRT



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.91)


LESL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LESL  Leslies (-0.91)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.93)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)









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