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VLY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Given the current mean-reverting trend and a price that's stabilized near $9, VLY may experience upward pressure if institutional buying continues, possibly targeting $10-$11, supported by attractive yields. Implied volatility is relatively high for short-term options, indicating potential upward moves.



Bearish Case: Elevated put trading volume and weakness in commercial real estate expose VLY to downside risks. Current implied volatility suggests traders anticipate further declines, which could see VLY retracing to near $8 due to adverse economic conditions and investor sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance VLY rallies to $10-$11 due to institutional interest and dividends.

2) 35% likelihood of trading sideways between $9-$10 reflecting recent patterns.

3) 25% chance it declines back toward $8 amid macroeconomic pressures.



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October 27, 2024


Valley National Bancorp Forecast

VLY        Valley National Bancorp

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Uncorrelated Assets

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CPB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPB  Campbell Soup (0.0)


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (0.0)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (-0.0)


URI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URI  United Rentals (0.0)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VLY


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