VLY Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: VLY may rally as the bank pivots from heavy CRE exposure. The $400M capital raise strengthens its balance sheet and unlocks growth opportunities, leading to improved sentiment.




Bearish Case: Continuing concerns over VLY's high commercial real estate exposure may pressure its stock price. The likelihood of macroeconomic challenges could lead to further declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 45% chance of rebounding to $12 due to growth from capital raise.
  • 30% chance trading sideways around $10-$11 from market adjustments.
  • 25% chance of falling to $9 due to persistent market skepticism.




Trading Oracle: Consider establishing a bull call spread using VLY 01/17/2025 10.00 C and 12.00 C to capitalize on potential recovery post-capital raise. Alternatively, engage a bear put spread if volatility spikes, hedging against potential dips.



December 15, 2024


Valley National Bancorp Forecast

VLY        Valley National Bancorp











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