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VLY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: VLY's recent capital raise and strategic moves create potential for price stabilization and upside given improved financial health and optimism in banking sector.

Bearish Case: High volatility, commercial real estate exposure, and increased put volume highlight ongoing risks. Backwardation in implied volatility supports cautious outlook.

Potential Outcomes: 50% chance stagnation at $9-$10 due to balanced forecasts, 30% rebound to $11 on positive bank sector news, 20% decline to $8 from CRE risks.

Trading Oracle: Consider trading a bearish put credit spread; sell $9 puts and buy $8 puts expiring March 2025. Leverage high implied volatilities and CRE uncertainties. Short-term setup offers positive edge, balancing risk while exploiting favorable volatility skew.

January 15, 2025

Valley National Bancorp Forecast

VLY Valley National Bancorp

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