VLY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: VLY's recent capital raise and strategic moves create potential for price stabilization and upside given improved financial health and optimism in banking sector.




Bearish Case: High volatility, commercial real estate exposure, and increased put volume highlight ongoing risks. Backwardation in implied volatility supports cautious outlook.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance stagnation at $9-$10 due to balanced forecasts, 30% rebound to $11 on positive bank sector news, 20% decline to $8 from CRE risks.




Trading Oracle: Consider trading a bearish put credit spread; sell $9 puts and buy $8 puts expiring March 2025. Leverage high implied volatilities and CRE uncertainties. Short-term setup offers positive edge, balancing risk while exploiting favorable volatility skew.



January 15, 2025


Valley National Bancorp Forecast

VLY        Valley National Bancorp











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