VNQ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Implied volatility is higher for calls than puts, indicating more interest in upside. Helium suggests more bullish risk across tenors, with 34% more bullish than bearish risk. This supportive setup hints at potential gains.


Bearish Case: Consistency in VNQ’s past underperformance (-10.4% over two years) and Helium price forecast near neutral with a slight bearish tilt suggests caution. Elevated implied volatility on the downside maintains downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat performance: 40%, past correlates with stagnant market.

2. Short-term rebound linked to calls interest: 30%.

3. Market dip tied to historical performance and downward bias: 30%.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bearish credit spread: sell $82 strike put & buy $80 strike put expiring in ~24 days to capture premium. High Helium odds of profit (64%) with positive edge, exploiting flat market expectation. Strategy aligns with consistent historical momentum & market sentiment, maintaining low risk.


June 26, 2024


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ      Vanguard Real Estate Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.14)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)





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