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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Victoria's Secret's return of the iconic fashion show, coupled with new collaborations and a focus on inclusivity, could reignite brand loyalty and drive sales, potentially pushing stock prices higher.

Bearish Case: Persistent controversies, financial struggles, and a still-shifting consumer landscape may hinder Victoria's Secret's recovery, leading to continued market skepticism and further declines in stock performance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful rebranding and fashion show (35% chance).

2. Ongoing financial struggles persist (45% chance).

3. New controversies derail recovery efforts (20% chance).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying $24 call options and selling $25 call options expiring in 3 days. This strategy utilizes high implied volatility, aiming for a modest price uplift as the fashion show approaches, capitalizing on potential positive sentiment.

September 19, 2024