Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The recent return of the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show generated excitement and renewed brand visibility, suggesting potential increased sales. If upcoming campaigns resonate well with a more diverse consumer base, stock prices may trend upwards, aided by a favorable seasonal buying environment.

Bearish Case: Despite the fashion show's return, VSCO faces substantial challenges, including public skepticism over its rebranding efforts and persistent financial struggles. If these efforts fail to significantly improve sales, the stock may continue its downward momentum, reflecting historical performance trends.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive sales growth from the fashion show revitalization (40% probability).

2. Continued financial struggles leading to price declines (45% probability).

3. Consumer backlash against brand changes (15% probability). Historical trends support these estimates based on ongoing controversies and market reactions.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying 1 $40.00 call and selling 1 $41.00 call expiring in 30 days, leveraging the recent upturn in excitement while managing risk. The high implied volatility suggests a favorable environment for potential gains while aiming for moderate price appreciation.

November 19, 2024