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AI VTEB Forecast


Bullish Case: VTEB could benefit from falling interest rates and increased demand for tax-exempt securities, potentially driving prices higher due to favorable economic policies and market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Economic stagnation and rising inflation could pressure VTEB prices, exacerbated by high implied volatility and a historically negative performance trend, leading to sustained selling pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of stabilization around $50;

2. 25% chance of a 2-5% decline from economic slowdowns;

3. 20% probability of 5-7% upside from tax incentives;

4. 15% chance of high volatility causing large price swings.

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September 01, 2024


Vanguard Group Forecast

VTEB      Vanguard Group

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VTEB


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.94)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (0.94)


IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.9)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.89)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VTEB


GFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GFS  GlobalFoundries (-0.0)


CIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CIM  Chimera Investment (-0.0)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (0.0)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (0.01)


GPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPC  Genuine Parts (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VTEB


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.85)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.89)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.92)



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