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VWO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong call option trading suggests potential upward movement. Backwardation could signal anticipated short-term growth, supported by robust trading volumes and increased bullish risk.

Bearish Case: Historical mean reversion trends and high implied volatilities suggest potential corrections. Backwardation might indicate temporary declines before stabilizing, especially if external emerging market factors persist.

Potential Outcomes: VWO sees slight rise (40%), maintains current levels (35%), or minor correction (25%) as market dynamics evolve. Backwardation hints at temporary volatility with mixed market signals.

Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish long call debit spread using May 16, 2025 $47/$49 strikes, leveraging backwardation and call volume to capture potential short-term upside. Optimal for a 90-day outlook, balancing risk with volatility advantage.

February 21, 2025

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VWO Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with VWO

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JNUG Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.78)

RGLD Royal Gold (0.77)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VWO

ASAN Asana (0.0)

ESTC Elastic (0.01)

AMC AMC Entertainment (0.01)

LU Lufax Holding Ltd (-0.01)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VWO

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (-0.6)

SHLS Shoals (-0.63)

CAL Caleres (-0.63)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.65)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.68)

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