Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With rising implied volatility - Helium's forecast suggests potential market shocks due to upcoming events, making a strong case for VXX spikes. Current bullish sentiment from the elevated options volume supports this view.

Bearish Case: Given persistent flat price action and historical underperformance since the implied volatility remains low, the bearish outlook prevails. Lack of significant market events diminishes upside momentum.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of a volatility spike from unexpected market events;

2) 30% chance of steady price decline due to market stability;

3) 30% chance of flat movement without catalysts.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish strategy using a call debit spread: buy $56 calls and sell $61 calls for a 4-day expiration, targeting short-term volatility increases due to earnings or macro news, justified by the recent spike in implied volatility.

October 31, 2024