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WAFD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: WAFD's robust management and stable historical returns paired with strategic growth initiatives present a compelling undervaluation case, evidenced by low P/B ratio and reduced market volatility.

Bearish Case: Moody's potential downgrade and regulatory risks continue to loom, amplified by high implied volatility, signaling potential market distrust amidst uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Potential Outcomes: Moody's downgrade risk (~40%) may trigger valuation decline.
Strong Q3 performance (~30%) could bolster stock price.
Regulatory pressures (~30%) pose negative impacts.

July 01, 2025

Washington Federal Forecast

WAFD Washington Federal

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WAFD

SBH Sally Beauty (0.89)

VTRS Viatris (0.88)

LDI LoanDepot (0.88)

GNTX Gentex (0.85)

DHI D.R. Horton (0.84)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WAFD

FNF Fidelity National Financial (-0.01)

LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.02)

QQQM Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (-0.02)

HES Hess (-0.02)

YELP Yelp (-0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WAFD

EVRG Evergy (-0.67)

GILD Gilead Sciences (-0.67)

VRSN Verisign (-0.7)

GFI Gold Fields (-0.75)

FNV Franco-Nevada (-0.76)

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