WMG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: WMG's strategic digital initiatives, including blockchain collaborations and increased streaming revenue, show promise for solid growth, supported by institutional investments that enhance market confidence.




Bearish Case: Continued high P/B ratio suggests overvaluation risks, compounded by legal challenges impacting market sentiment and potentially leading to significant price corrections.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Digital revenue growth from partnerships (50% chance)
  • Legal setbacks reduce investor interest (30% chance)
  • Market correction due to high valuation (20% chance)




Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish strategy with bull call spreads using $30C and $31C options. This leverages the current strong implied volatility and long-term growth sentiment, with an estimated 80% chance of profit based on recent trends and historical performance.



December 18, 2024


Warner Music Forecast

WMG        Warner Music











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TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.84)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WMG



ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (0.0)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.01)


UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (0.01)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.01)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WMG



FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.7)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.73)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.78)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.79)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.81)









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