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WMT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Walmart's recent earnings beat indicates stronger consumer demand, particularly among wealthier shoppers. The upcoming holiday shopping season could further boost sales due to strategic discounts and promotions, enhancing market sentiment.



Bearish Case: Potential tariff impacts could drive up prices, challenging Walmart's everyday low-price model. Legal and safety issues may continue to harm its reputation, deterring customers and dampening sales, especially in a weak economy.



Potential Outcomes:

1. (50% probability): Strong Holiday sales lead to WMT price rebound.


2. (30% probability): Price hikes due to tariffs reduce customer spending.


3. (20% probability): Continued legal challenges dampen consumer trust.



Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying WMT $88 calls and selling $90 calls, expecting upside from holiday sales. Market volatilities favor this strategy with a potential return of 15% and an edge of at least 63% based on Helium’s forecast.


November 20, 2024


Walmart Forecast

WMT        Walmart

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WMT


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.87)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.83)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.78)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (0.76)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WMT


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (-0.0)


DHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHI  D.R. Horton (0.0)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (-0.0)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.0)


ACM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACM  AECOM (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WMT


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.75)


HUYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUYA  HUYA (-0.75)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.77)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.8)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.82)







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