YMM Forecast


Bullish Case: Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd demonstrated 136.7% earnings growth over the past year, with strong institutional interest and expected annual earnings growth of 29.73%.


Bearish Case: Despite strong earnings growth, YMM's recent mean-reverting price action and trading below its fair value suggest potential volatility and downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of strong earnings driving price to $10.0; 40% likelihood YMM remains range-bound near its current price of $8.21; 30% chance of downward pressure below $7.50 due to economic uncertainty in China.


Trading Oracle: Profitable trading strategy: Implement a bull call spread by buying $7.5 and selling $10.0 strike calls expiring in January 2025. Targeting a return of 1.6:1 with a 34% Helium odds of profit. Capture upside while limiting downside risk.


July 10, 2024


Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd - Forecast

YMM      Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd -











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with YMM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to YMM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against YMM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.52)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.62)





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