Metaculus Media Bias

Uncover sensationalism, opinion, and topical biases from Metaculus. Updated weekly.

         



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Metaculus News Cycle (?):






Metaculus News Bias (?):

🗞️ Objective <-> Subjective 👁️ :

📝 Prescriptive:

💭 Opinion:

🗳 Political:

🏛️ Appeal to Authority:

👀 Covering Responses:

❌ Uncredible <-> Credible ✅:



Metaculus Social Media Impact (?): 0




Discussion:




Metaculus Most Emotional Articles


Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Forward) 0%

Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Libertarian) 1%

Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Republican) 46%

Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Democratic) 49%

Prediction Market: What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Green) 0%

Prediction Market: In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? 96%

Prediction Market: Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026? 2%

Prediction Market: In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? 96%




Metaculus Most Ideological Articles


😨 Prediction Market: Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050? (Any EU country) 75%

🚨 Prediction Market: Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? 99%

Prediction Market: Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year? (2030) 75%




Metaculus Most Opinionated Articles


😨 Prediction Market: Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050? (Any EU country) 75%

💭 Prediction Market: If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term? (Nikki Haley) 95%

💭 Prediction Market: Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017? 79%




Metaculus Most Oversimplified Articles


🚨 Prediction Market: Group 1: If $1 million is paid to SMEs to support the French and South Korean AI safety summit, will mutual verification of AI systems for national security be mentioned in a readout by 2026? (If No) 43%

🏛️ Prediction Market: Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? 90%




Metaculus Most Appeal to Authority Articles


😨 Prediction Market: Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? 1%

🏛️ Prediction Market: Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? 1%

🏛️ Prediction Market: Group 1: If $1 million is paid to SMEs to support the French and South Korean AI safety summit, will mutual verification of AI systems for national security be mentioned in a readout by 2026? (If No) 43%




Metaculus Most Covering Responses


😨 Prediction Market: Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050? (Any EU country) 75%

Prediction Market: If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term? (Ron DeSantis) 95%




Metaculus Most Subjective Articles


Prediction Market: In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (March 2024) 43%

Prediction Market: Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? 1%

Prediction Market: If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips? 50%




Metaculus Most Fearful Articles


😨 Prediction Market: Will the following countries intervene military if there is a Second Korean War by 2050? (Any EU country) 75%

😨 Prediction Market: Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070? 33%

😨 Prediction Market: Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? 1%




Metaculus Most Politically Hawkish Articles


Prediction Market: Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? 1%

Prediction Market: Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? 60%

Prediction Market: Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029? 99%


Metaculus Most Overconfident Articles


Prediction Market: Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? 90%

Prediction Market: Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? 99%

Prediction Market: Group 1: If $1 million is paid to SMEs to support the French and South Korean AI safety summit, will mutual verification of AI systems for national security be mentioned in a readout by 2026? (If Yes) 48%




Metaculus Most Prescriptive Articles    

Prediction Market: Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? 32%

Prediction Market: If Donald J. Trump is convicted in the classified documents case, how many months of imprisonment will he be sentenced to? 4%

Prediction Market: Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? 72%

Prediction Market: What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? 0%

Prediction Market: Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030? 25%

Prediction Market: AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook (Yes) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 21%

Prediction Market: AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook (No) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 34%

Prediction Market: AI in 2024 Presidential Debates (Yes) → When AI concern go mainstream in US? 22%





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