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VNQ Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: VNQ's bullish risk outweighs bearish by 27%, with rising call volumes deeply underpriced compared to puts, suggesting upside potential amid a mean-reverting regime.



Bearish Case: Persistent macro pressures and elevated put interest heighten downside risks for VNQ, with Helium indicating unfavorable volatility skew against potential gains.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 29% chance of flat performance due to mean reversion.

2. 35% chance of moderate decline due to economic pressures.

3. 36% chance of slight recovery driven by interest rate changes.



Trading Oracle: Leverage Helium's short vol edge with bullish credit spreads: sell $91.0 puts, buy $90.0 puts expiring in 14 days. Capture premium in a mean-reverting landscape with 71% win rate and 12% historical returns. Time volatility softens around upcoming rate meetings, offering profitable skew.exploiting systematic patterns effectively.


February 15, 2025


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.94)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.93)


PTGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTGX  Protagonist Therapeutics (0.91)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.9)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.01)


NVST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVST  Envista (-0.01)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.8)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (-0.8)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.8)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.83)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)







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