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VNQ Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: With increasing call volumes and a bullish risk outlook 49% higher than bearish, VNQ could rise, especially if interest rates are cut, enhancing REIT attractiveness, targeting above $100 by early 2025.



Bearish Case: High implied volatilities for puts and persistent economic pressures indicate significant downside risks. A potential drop below $90 remains plausible amidst ongoing market uncertainties and flat price action.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of reaching $100 due to rising investor confidence.

2. 25% chance of flat performance near $95.

3. 45% chance of falling below $90 due to macroeconomic headwinds.



Trading Oracle: Consider creating a bullish short put spread by selling the $94 put and buying the $92 put, capturing premium with an expected return of 14% over the next 28 days. Given the prevailing market conditions and trends, this strategy offers favorable odds and a secure risk/reward profile.


October 20, 2024


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ


XLRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLRE  Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (0.99)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.99)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.95)


PSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSA  Public Storage (0.95)


IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ


CRWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRWD  Crowdstrike (0.0)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.0)


MGM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGM  MGM Resorts International (-0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.9)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.91)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.97)







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