Bullish Case: ABUS front-dated implied vol sits materially higher than later expiries (backwardation on the term-structure graph), matching my earlier “settlement clears uncertainty” idea. The return surface’s brightest band concentrates around modest +10–25% outcomes. With $4.8 near the 4–5 call “gravity,” the bullish case leans to a post-payout re-rate toward ~$5.3–$5.7, assuming call-side IV doesn’t stay inflated.

Bearish Case: Even after payout optimism, ABUS’s volatility surface shows extreme low-strike put skew (IV ~400–500) while SPY’s surface is relatively low/flatter (≈12–25), implying idiosyncratic downside tail. That’s consistent with my prior “unfavorable ruling/financing” buckets. If capital-return signals disappoint or legal/royalty overhang resurfaces, ABUS could gap toward ~$3.8–$4.2 and keep IV elevated instead of compressing.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 28% (bullish): payout framed positively; falsifiable: Jul18/Aug22 IV front contracts & price holds >4.6.
2. 22% (delay/range): uncertainty persists; falsifiable: put-skew stays steep; chop 4.3–5.2.
3. 12% (bear gap): damages/royalty hit; falsifiable: IV put tail stays ~500; break <4.0.
4. 18% (dilution): financing disappoints; falsifiable: no IV crush, -10% to -20% drift.
5. 20% (mean revert): no new info; falsifiable: realized returns mostly +0–15%.

Oracle: after IV crush + close >4.6, explore 5C/6C spread; if <4.0 with skew rising, explore 4P/3P hedge.

July 11, 2026