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ADP Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ADP's consistent demand in payroll and HR services supports positive growth. Strong fundamentals and bullish sentiment indicated by high call option volume and elevated implied volatility position ADP for upside potential.

Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and dependence on small business clients pose risks. Elevated implied volatility reflects market apprehension, potentially signaling downside risk amidst competitive pressures and economic instability.

Potential Outcomes: Probable Outcomes:

1. Sustained revenue growth due to robust demand (45%).

2. Economic downturn reducing revenue (35%).

3. Neutral impact with mixed signals maintaining stability (20%).

May 13, 2025

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