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ADP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ADP's resilience in a soft economy showcases its steady demand. The options market indicates a preference for upside potential, with strong call volume and implied volatility suggesting bullish sentiment ahead of earnings reports.



Bearish Case: Economic uncertainty and potential contraction in small business clients could pressure ADP. Implied volatility shows concern, especially given competitive pressures and reliance on a shaky economic backdrop may lead to revenue declines.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Steady client growth leading to a revenue boost (30% probability).
2. Economic downturn leads to reduced demand, impacting stock price (40% probability).
3. Neutral market conditions maintain current price levels (30% probability).



Trading Oracle: With high implied volatility favoring options trading, consider implementing a bullish call spread. Sell the $310 strike call and buy the $335 strike call, expiring in 16 days. This strategy leverages upside market sentiment and offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. Expect a 75% probability of profit with significant upside potential as indicated in the volatility surface analysis.


November 22, 2024


Automatic Data Processing Forecast

ADP        Automatic Data Processing

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ADP


CB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CB  Chubb (0.87)


HBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBI  Hanesbrands (0.87)


DDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDM  ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.87)


PNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNR  Pentair (0.87)


UDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDOW  ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADP


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.0)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.01)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.01)


GXO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GXO  GXO Logistics (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADP


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.79)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.8)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (-0.81)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.81)


SOYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOYB  Teucrium Soybean (-0.82)







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