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ADP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ADP's strong demand in payroll services and stable financials indicate continued growth, supported by bullish sentiment and historical reliability demonstrated in the volatility and return graphs.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and reliance on small businesses expose ADP to economic downturn risks, while mean reversion patterns suggest potential downward price adjustments.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable or moderate growth dominates (45%): ADP's consistent demand and financial strength support this.
  • Economic downturn impacts growth (35%): Vulnerability due to small business exposure.
  • Continued mean reversion leads to price adjustments (20%).


April 05, 2025


Automatic Data Processing Forecast

ADP        Automatic Data Processing

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ADP


BK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BK  Bank Of New York Mellon (0.95)


ORLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORLY  O'Reilly Automotive (0.92)


ORI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORI  Old Republic International (0.92)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.91)


TVTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TVTX  Travere Therapeutics (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADP


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.0)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (0.03)


CVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVX  Chevron (-0.03)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.04)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.05)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADP


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.87)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.87)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.87)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.89)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.89)







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