ADP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ADP demonstrates strong fundamentals, reflected in stable revenue growth and increasing market share. Positioned well with its robust payroll services, it attracts bullish investor sentiment. [109, 36]




Bearish Case: Economic headwinds persist, especially impacting small business clients crucial to ADP's revenue. High implied volatility suggests market concern about near-term downside risks. HeliumHelium




Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued market share gain (35%)
  • Economic downturn impact (35%)
  • Flat market conditions (30%)




Trading Oracle: Exploit ADP's elevated implied volatility by deploying a short volatility strategy. Execute a bullish credit spread: sell 02/21/2025 290 Put, buy 02/21/2025 285 Put, leveraging stability and potential upside. Expect high probability of profit (>70%) with expiration in 54 days.



December 28, 2024


Automatic Data Processing Forecast

ADP        Automatic Data Processing











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