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ADP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ADP's strong demand in payroll services and stable financials indicate continued growth, supported by bullish sentiment and historical reliability demonstrated in the volatility and return graphs.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and reliance on small businesses expose ADP to economic downturn risks, while mean reversion patterns suggest potential downward price adjustments.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable or moderate growth dominates (45%): ADP's consistent demand and financial strength support this.
  • Economic downturn impacts growth (35%): Vulnerability due to small business exposure.
  • Continued mean reversion leads to price adjustments (20%).


April 05, 2025


Automatic Data Processing Forecast

ADP        Automatic Data Processing

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ADP


FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAS  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (0.95)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.94)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (0.93)


TPB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPB  Turning Point Brands (0.93)


GIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIL  Gildan Activewear (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADP


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.01)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.01)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.02)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.02)


IR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IR  Ingersoll-Rand (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADP


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.88)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.89)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.89)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.89)


STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.89)







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