Bullish Case: Call volume ran 97% above puts at the 2nd volume percentile, and Helium's density puts a fat mode at $1.5–$2.0 with weight out to $2.5 — the market is quietly pricing survival plus event optionality. An AL137 IND filing or BBB-shuttle datapoint before the January 2, 2027 GSK termination could re-rate ALEC toward $2.5–$3, where long-dated calls remain cheap despite 100–250% IV.

Bearish Case: Two sortilin/progranulin failures, no clinical-stage programs after GSK exits effective January 2, 2027, ongoing burn, and prior 23% rebound means mean-reversion risk. The Helium forecast (-0.61%, correlation ~0) and the return surface's negative long-horizon mode both argue drift lower; a financing or going-concern 8-K could send shares back toward $1.0–$1.3.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Rangebound $1.5–$2.0, episodic drift — 40%: Helium PDF mode at $1.5–2.0; falsifiable via no >$50M raise and no 8-K catalysts by Nov.
2. Dilution/going-concern slide to $1.0–$1.4 — 25%: falsifiable via 10-Q runway language or offering.
3. AL137 IND/PK catalyst pop $2.2–$3.0 — 18%: falsifiable via IND filing or peer-reviewed data by year-end.
4. LOI/licensing/acquisition ≥$3 — 7%: falsifiable via disclosed deal.
5. Post-GSK-exit fade below $1 — 10%: January 2, 2027 termination effective date.

September 19, 2026