Bullish Case: APLS may experience growth culled from recent product developments and market sentiment improvements. Analysts note strong historical returns, which typically favor a bounce back as investors regain confidence in fundamentals.

Bearish Case: Persistent high volatility and recent underperformance may continue to press APLS downwards. High implied volatility suggests potential further downside risk, especially if market conditions do not stabilize soon.

Potential Outcomes:

• Price rebound to $45: 30% chance due to improving fundamentals.
• Continued downtrend to $25: 50% likelihood driven by negative sentiment and volatility.
• Sideways movement around $30: 20% likely amidst market indecision.

Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish debit spread using APLS $35C and $40C options due January 2025. This captures potential upside amidst supportive market conditions while limiting exposure. Target a 60%-70% probability of profit harnessing the lower implied volatility relative to historical yields.

December 15, 2024