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AGI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AGI's strategic acquisitions and strong historical returns position it for continued growth, backed by high call option volume and institutional support.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and historical mean reversion suggest potential short-term pullbacks, especially with operational uncertainties and market volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rise to $24 (40%) from acquisition synergies.

2. Stabilization around $22 (30%) with flat returns.

3. Pullback to $18 (25%) from volatility and reversion.

4. Correction to $15 (5%) from unexpected challenges.

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February 04, 2025

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AGI Alamos Gold

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SATS EchoStar (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGI

FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (-0.0)

LCID Lucid (0.02)

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (-0.02)

FCX Freeport-McMoRan (-0.02)

GTLS Chart Industries (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGI

SHLS Shoals (-0.84)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.85)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)

DIN Dine Brands (-0.85)

GO Grocery Outlet (-0.88)

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