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AGI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AGI's strategic acquisitions, sustained earnings growth, and an increase in institutional interest, combined with favorable volatility conditions, indicate potential for continued upward momentum. Current mean reversion suggests recovery from recent lows, bolstered by gold market dynamics.



Bearish Case: Market uncertainty with high implied volatility, coupled with potential operational challenges post-acquisition, signals risk of pullbacks. Historical mean reversion patterns and flattening term structure suggest caution, with geopolitical and market volatility concerns persisting.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price stability due to acquisition synergies: 45%
  • Volatility-induced corrections: 35%
  • Growth propelled by investor sentiment: 15%
  • Sharp decline from geopolitical factors: 5%


April 19, 2025


Alamos Gold Forecast

AGI        Alamos Gold

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Assets that tend to move strongly with AGI


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.84)


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EUFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUFN  BTC iShares MSCI Europe Financials (0.81)


EXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXC  Exelon (0.81)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGI


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.01)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (0.01)


EXAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAS  Exact Sciences (0.04)


ROIV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROIV  Roivant Sciences (-0.04)


BBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBY  Best Buy (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGI


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (-0.83)


ADNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADNT  Adient (-0.83)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.83)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.84)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.85)







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