AGI Forecast


Bullish Case: Alamos Gold's strong integration of Argonaut Gold can drive production above 600,000 ounces annually, coupled with increased institutional interest and a favorable gold market, setting the stage for higher returns.


Bearish Case: Market volatility and potential operational challenges from acquiring Argonaut Gold could hinder Alamos Gold's performance, exacerbated by possible declines in gold prices, leading to lower investor confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings growth acceleration: 55% chance.

2. Market correction due to global factors: 25% chance.

3. Increased volatility from operational risks: 20% chance.

4. Expanding institutional investment: 40% chance.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying AGI September 20, 2024 $18.00 calls and selling $20.00 calls, capturing upside with a low entry cost. Focus on shorter expirations to capitalize on implied volatility spikes ahead of earnings. This strategy offers a favorable risk/reward profile.


July 24, 2024


Alamos Gold Forecast

AGI      Alamos Gold











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XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.67)





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