ARCC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ARCC's stable dividend yield and favorable pricing attract income-focused investors. Historical mean-reverting returns and elevated call volume indicate possible upside potential.




Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties, potential rate hikes, and high-interest risks could challenge ARCC's earnings. Helium-implied volatility suggests potential downside in turbulent markets.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of steady returns with a stable market, 30% chance of economic downturn causing declines, 20% chance of growth from increased fundraising.




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July 02, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARCC



BXSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXSL  Blackstone Secured Lending Fund. (0.93)


AIQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AIQ  Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology (0.82)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.78)


UAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAL  United Airlines (0.76)


RCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCL  Royal Caribbean (0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARCC



TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.02)


DXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXC  DXC Technology (0.02)


SGML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SGML  Sigma Lithium (0.03)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (0.04)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARCC



UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.5)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.55)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.56)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.57)


KHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KHC  Kraft Heinz (-0.59)









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