Bullish Case: ARR's significant price rebound from a year ago (+286.9%) indicates a strong recovery trend. Recent dividend rate maintenance and its high book value growth point towards a sustaining uptrend.


Bearish Case: A decade-long price decline and interest rate sensitivity suggest persistent vulnerability. Recent leadership changes and dividend adjustments reflect underlying challenges that may hinder growth.


Potential Outcomes: Possible outcomes:

1) Continuation of dividend rate and price growth (35% probability) considering recent performance;

2) Dividend stability with minor price fluctuations (50% probability) in line with historical patterns;

3) Unforeseen economic downturn impacting performance (15% probability) given market volatility.


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March 30, 2024


ARMOUR Residential REIT Forecast

ARR        ARMOUR Residential REIT
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: TRENDING (?)











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