Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing institutional interest and the potential successful navigation of regulatory hurdles positions BLK for growth. The historical returns support upward trends as AUM stabilizes through continuous inflows, especially in private credit.

Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and investor sentiment may lead to continued outflows, particularly if recent criticisms around ESG practices persist. The volatility structure suggests a likelihood of declining prices in response to market pressures.

Potential Outcomes:

• 45% chance that regulatory approvals for crypto ETFs drive substantial inflows, boosting AUM.
• 30% chance of ongoing outflows due to negative public sentiment impacting share price.
• 25% chance that consistent earnings and acquisitions stabilize investor confidence.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish call debit spread by buying the $1080 call and selling the $1100 call, expiring shortly after regulatory announcements. This strategy leverages current upward momentum while mitigating risks associated with than underlying volatility. Focus on a robust risk-reward profile as implied volatility remains elevated.

December 12, 2024