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BOND Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Optimistic for BOND as Fed cuts rates could drive bond prices higher, supported by historical gains during similar monetary policies. Low implied volatility signals a potential rally upwards.

Bearish Case: Bearish sentiment arises from concerns over inflation and fiscal pressures possibly hindering BOND performance. Market volatility suggests the risk of significant price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Fed rate cuts help BOND rally (60%).

2. Persistent inflation prompts yield spikes, pressuring bond prices (20%).

3. Monitored economic slowdown leads to stagnant growth (15%).

4. Unexpected geopolitical tensions increase market volatility (5%). Stats informed by historical price return surfaces.

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November 20, 2024

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Assets that tend to move strongly with BOND

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ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.77)

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BOND

SOXS Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (-0.0)

UAL United Airlines (-0.0)

TTC Toro (-0.0)

CAPR Capricor Therapeutics (-0.01)

OWL Blue Owl (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BOND

ABNB Airbnb (-0.63)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.63)

BITO ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (-0.65)

CTRA Coterra Energy (-0.71)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.93)

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