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BTC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: BTC's strong institutional adoption and decreasing supply due to long-term holder distribution and ETF activity support continued rally potential above $100,000.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests trader nervousness. Volume in put options exceeds calls, indicating potential bearish outlook amid regulatory uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes: Sideways trading near $95k-$100k (70%), breakout above $110k with institutional inflow (20%), or short-term corrective dip below $90k (10%).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a long call debit spread, buying BTC-100K-C and selling BTC-110K-C, targeting a March 2025 expiry. This leverages backwardation in the futures term structure and mitigates high implied volatility risk, poised for a potential rally driven by institutional activity.

February 08, 2025

Bitcoin Forecast

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