Bullish Case: CEVA recovered 27.5% off the August low ($27.05→$34.48) and Helium's density curve peaks near $35, matching spot. The +0.82% AI signal, modest 3.4 P/B, and stabilization after the -14.7% 90-day drawdown suggest the breach/sector-cyber overhang is priced. Mean-reversion toward $37-40 fits the historical return surface's fat right tail.

Bearish Case: Put volume runs 816% above calls and the surface stays backwardated with deep-tail put IVs (274% at 15-strike) — institutions are still paying up for downside protection. Momentum is damaged (-19.6% over five years), the cyber campaign targeting logistics-branded channels continues, and any SPY vol spike transmits to high-beta names like CEVA.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30%: Range $32-37 through Nov 20 expiry — Helium and market PDFs both peak at $35; falsified by a close outside the band.
2. 25%: Rebound $37-42 — put-skew unwinds, Oct 35 delta-0.5 put pricing normalizes; falsified if $33 breaks.
3. 25%: Slide $28-32 — put-flow dominance confirms; falsified by sustained trade above $36 with call volume leadership.
4. 12%: Sharp drop below $27 — SPY IV regime shift or renewed cyber/logistics contagion.
5. 8%: Spike above $42 — concrete licensing/edge-AI catalyst, not promotional news.

September 30, 2026