SPY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite recent corrections, long-term historical data shows SPY resilience, with potential gains driven by stabilizing geopolitical tensions and robust corporate earnings.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility suggests continued market uncertainty, especially given backwardation, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic disruptions, posing downswing risks.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Stable economic recovery and rate stability could push SPY to $550 (40% probability).
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures lead to volatility, keeping SPY below $500 (30% probability).
  • Steady rate decisions and strong corporate earnings help SPY remain around $525 (30% probability).



April 05, 2025


 SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY         SPDR S&P 500











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY



IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.99)


VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.97)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY



APG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APG  APi (-0.0)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.02)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.03)


PCAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCAR  Paccar (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY



RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.86)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.87)


WU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WU  Western Union (-0.87)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.9)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.9)









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