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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SPY's bullish sentiment is supported by strong trading volume in call options, indicating investor optimism. If the Fed maintains interest rates, positive fundamentals could drive prices higher.



Bearish Case: Increasing implied volatility and historical sell-offs suggest market uncertainty. If inflation data spikes or Fed hiking resumes, SPY may face significant declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY rises to $620 (35% chance), driven by stable interest rates and strong earnings.
  • SPY stabilizes around $600 (40% chance), ensuring a flat market amid volatility.
  • SPY drops to $580 (15% chance), pressured by Fed actions or adverse economic data.
  • SPY declines below $570 (10% chance) due to significant market shocks like geopolitical tensions.
    •



    Trading Oracle: Position for potential upside with a debit spread targeting $620 calls due to optimistic market conditions, using near-to-money strikes for controlled risk. The expected implied volatility supports this strategy, enhancing reward-to-risk. Ensure to monitor any economic data releases closely.


    December 18, 2024


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    Correlated Assets

    Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


    SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


    VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)


    TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.97)


    MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.97)


    BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.97)



    Uncorrelated Assets

    Assets with little price relationship to SPY


    TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.01)


    FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.01)


    UAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UAN  CVR Partners (-0.02)


    OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.02)


    UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.04)



    Anticorrelated Assets

    Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


    LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (-0.87)


    WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.89)


    APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)


    SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.91)


    SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)







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