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SPY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Strong SPY trading at all-time highs, reinforced by positive sentiment and low implied volatility for near-term options. Historical resilience supports further potential upward movement.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility backwardation hints at market uncertainty. Economic concerns, potential rate hikes, and overvaluation risks suggest caution against possible downturn.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY surpasses $620 with economic stability (40%).
  • Corrections to $580 occur amid market pullbacks (30%).
  • Persistent volatility keeps SPY around $600 (30%).


June 12, 2025


SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY         SPDR S&P 500

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


VTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTI  Vanguard Total Stock Market (1.0)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.95)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.95)


KEYS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KEYS  Keysight (0.95)


ACWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACWI  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI ACWI (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY


SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (0.0)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.0)


ACMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACMR  ACM Research (0.0)


FAST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAST  Fastenal (-0.0)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (-0.52)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.54)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.57)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.58)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.59)







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