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SPY Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: SPY's bullish sentiment is supported by strong trading volume in call options, indicating investor optimism. If the Fed maintains interest rates, positive fundamentals could drive prices higher.



Bearish Case: Increasing implied volatility and historical sell-offs suggest market uncertainty. If inflation data spikes or Fed hiking resumes, SPY may face significant declines.



Potential Outcomes:
  • SPY rises to $620 (35% chance), driven by stable interest rates and strong earnings.
  • SPY stabilizes around $600 (40% chance), ensuring a flat market amid volatility.
  • SPY drops to $580 (15% chance), pressured by Fed actions or adverse economic data.
  • SPY declines below $570 (10% chance) due to significant market shocks like geopolitical tensions.
    •



    Trading Oracle: Position for potential upside with a debit spread targeting $620 calls due to optimistic market conditions, using near-to-money strikes for controlled risk. The expected implied volatility supports this strategy, enhancing reward-to-risk. Ensure to monitor any economic data releases closely.


    December 18, 2024


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    Correlated Assets

    Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY


    SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (1.0)


    SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (1.0)


    SPXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXL  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (1.0)


    TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.98)


    KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.98)



    Uncorrelated Assets

    Assets with little price relationship to SPY


    PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (-0.0)


    USD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USD  ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (-0.0)


    URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.0)


    IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.0)


    SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.01)



    Anticorrelated Assets

    Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY


    JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.9)


    WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)


    XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (-0.91)


    SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-1.0)


    SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-1.0)







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