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SPY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong market fundamentals and positive earnings surprises could propel SPY higher, supported by historical resilience shown in red on the return surface for holding periods over a year.

Bearish Case: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions may lead to increased volatility, triggering downside risks, evident by the flat recent price action and options backwardation.

Potential Outcomes: Fed maintains rates, market rallies (55% probability).
Inflation forces rate hikes, market dips (30% probability).
Geopolitical issues trigger volatility spike (15% probability).

March 12, 2025

SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY SPDR S&P 500

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY

VOO Vanguard S&P 500 (1.0)

IVV BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (1.0)

IVW BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.99)

VIG Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.97)

GLW Corning (0.97)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY

VERA Vera Therapeutics (-0.01)

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (0.01)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)

VERV Verve Therapeutics (-0.02)

SMIN BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI India Small-Cap (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (-0.86)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (-0.87)

WU Western Union (-0.87)

COTY Coty (-0.87)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.9)

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