Bullish Case: Increased interest in Kentucky Derby amid controversies may attract more attention and viewers, potentially boosting Churchill Downs' revenues [Washington Times].


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Bearish Case: The recent spate of horse deaths at Churchill Downs raises concerns about safety and may damage the company's reputation, leading to negative financial impacts [New York Post][NY Daily News].


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Takeaway: Churchill Downs' financial future depends on the company's ability to address and resolve safety concerns surrounding horse deaths [NY Daily News][wlky.com].


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Potential Outcomes:

1) Swift investigation and resolution to horse deaths with 50% chance of occurring could restore public's confidence in the track [Breitbart].

2) Ongoing scrutiny and potential lawsuits with a 30% chance of happening may dampen future revenue [NY Daily News][wlky.com].

3) New safety regulations or track changes with a 20% chance of implementation may result in increased costs for the company [New York Times].


May 23, 2023



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