CUBA Forecast


Bullish Case: The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin CUBA is mean-reverting with historical returns showing the possibility of a strong recovery. Recent low prices could provide a buy opportunity for a rebound as geopolitical tensions ease [Helium][Helium].


Bearish Case: CUBA price has been on a long-term downtrend; geopolitical uncertainties, including Russian warship activities, impact sentiment negatively. With a historical mean reversion towards negative returns, further losses are highly probable [Helium][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Geopolitical tension ease with a 30% chance, leading to slight recovery.

2. Continued tension, leading to economic sanctions on Cuba with a 50% chance, further degrading CUBA returns.

3. Unexpected positive news or diplomatic resolutions with a 20% chance, triggering a rapid price increase [rt.com][Fox][dw.com].


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June 19, 2024


Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Forecast

CUBA      Herzfeld Caribbean Basin











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