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CVGI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CVGI's move to electric vehicles and strategic industry shifts offer growth potential despite current price dips. Technological advancements could provide a fresh revenue stream.

Bearish Case: Heightened competition and rapid EV transition can threaten CVGI. Recent price declines indicate potential struggles in adapting swiftly to market demands.

Potential Outcomes: 40% chance CVGI capitalizes on EV shift; 35% chance stagnant due to competition; 15% chance market retreats cut revenue; 10% chance regulatory shifts severely impact earnings.

Trading Oracle: Focus on selling near-dated bull put spreads around $2.50 with high implied volatility. Capture premium from expected mean reversion in CVGI price, targeting a 1-2 month horizon.

January 14, 2025

Commercial Vehicle Forecast

CVGI Commercial Vehicle

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CVGI

LEA Lear (0.96)

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IEP Icahn (0.94)

GES Guess (0.94)

XRX Xerox (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CVGI

DNN Denison Mines (-0.02)

TS Tenaris S.A. (-0.02)

LEN Lennar (0.03)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.03)

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CVGI

GVA Granite Construction (-0.94)

VIRT Virtu Financial (-0.95)

CRS Carpenter Technology (-0.95)

KNTK Kinetik (-0.95)

BSX Boston Scientific (-0.96)

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