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EBS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Emergent's recovery pace and increased call volume indicate potential upside, driven by new leadership & product developments. High implied vol hints at future catalysts, while positive correlation with public health initiatives boosts optimism.



Bearish Case: Operational setbacks, regulatory scrutiny, and mean-reverting price actions pose risks. High implied vol exposes vulnerability to negative shocks, while historical declines and social skepticism undermine confidence.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Restructuring success boosts prices: 35%
  • Further operational failures: 45%
  • Acquisition drive positive sentiment: 15%
  • Regulatory issues: 5%



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January 24, 2025


Emergent Biosolutions Forecast

EBS        Emergent Biosolutions

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EBS


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.0)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (0.01)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.02)


CRESY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRESY  Cresud (0.02)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EBS


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (-0.77)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.78)


BGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BGS  B&G Foods (-0.78)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)


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