EBS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent cash inflow from government contracts [$250M], restructuring efforts and Narcan's consumer demand support potential financial recovery.


Bearish Case: Mounting operational failures, high volatility, negative historical returns, and competitive pressure continue to threaten EBS's stability.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued operational failures causing further stock decline: 40%.

2. Successful restructuring stabilizing price: 35%.

3. Acquisition: 15%.

4. Renewed regulatory concerns: 10%.


Trading Oracle: Engage in debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility). Buy near-term ATM calls, sell OTM calls. Strategy: Buying 4 $7.5 strike calls and selling 3 $10.0 strike calls for ~16 days. Positive edge with Helium odds of profit: 31%, annual return: 37%.


July 04, 2024


Emergent Biosolutions Forecast

EBS      Emergent Biosolutions











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