EDV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EDV's implied volatility suggests low market uncertainty. Institutional buy-in, flat recent price action of $75.17, and historical support indicate potential for upside gains, especially given recent 5.6% monthly rise.


Bearish Case: Historical return surfaces and ongoing bearish risk across tenors. EDV has significant downside potential with flat returns and lower demand indicators, exacerbated by recent -14.2% annual and -28.2% decadal losses.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 25% chance of significant drop due to bearish historical signals.

2) 50% chance of neutral movement indicated by flat recent trends.

3) 25% chance of moderate upside driven by institutional confidence and low market volatility.


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June 27, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Forecast

EDV      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury











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Uncorrelated Assets

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Assets that tend to move strongly against EDV



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