EDV Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EDV's recent flat price movement, coupled with rising implied volatility, suggests potential for upward momentum. Short-term bullish trends in the options market and institutional buy-ins could catalyze growth.


Bearish Case: The substantial historical losses reflected in EDV’s return surface indicate ongoing bearish sentiment. Increased downside risk from economic factors and elevated volatility may pressure prices further.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance EDV rises due to bullish institutional sentiment.

2) 35% chance EDV remains flat due to market equilibrium.

3) 25% chance EDV declines driven by economic forecasts.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a long volatility strategy by initiating a call spread using the EDV 08/16/2024 75.00 C and selling the 76.00 C. This capitalizes on positive short-term price action with a favorable reward:risk profile.


July 25, 2024


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Forecast

EDV      Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury











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