ELF Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ELF's product popularity and positive branding continue to drive consumer engagement, reflected in strong social media sentiment and historical growth trends.




Bearish Case: Insider selling and elevated volatility suggest investor caution, possibly stemming from skepticism about financial transparency and market saturation concerns.




Potential Outcomes: Sustained growth (50%), Flat performance (30%), Decline due to market reevaluation (20%).




Trading Oracle: Exploit short-term volatility spikes by employing a bullish debit spread: buy the $130C sell $135C expiring February 21, 2025. High profit potential with strong risk management, capitalizing on the January-February volatility increase.



January 10, 2025


e.l.f. Beauty Forecast

ELF        e.l.f. Beauty











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ENTG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENTG  Entegris (0.81)


BLNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLNK  Blink Charging (0.76)


VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.74)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ELF



PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (-0.0)


FXE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXE  Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (0.01)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.01)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (-0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ELF



BABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BABA  Alibaba (-0.75)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.76)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.76)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.8)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.81)









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