ESI Forecast


Bullish Case: ESI's historical return surface indicates potential for significant gains over short to medium holding periods with a bias towards positive returns. Recent partnerships and steady price rise enhance growth prospects.


Bearish Case: Market volatility, high short-term implied volatility in puts, and escalating competition pose significant risks. Historical return surface also shows frequent periods of underperformance, especially over the longer term.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Steady growth driven by demand for rare earth elements (60%).

2. Competitive pressures eroding margins (25%).

3. Economic downturn affecting performance (15%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads on ESI with a 6-9 month outlook. Focus on 25.00 calls due to favorable implied volatility and high probability of positive returns. Historical trends and current market conditions favor controlled risk and potential high reward.


July 12, 2024


Element Forecast

ESI      Element











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ESI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.64)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.68)





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