FCOM Forecast


Bullish Case: With FCOM up 29.9% over the past year, positive historical returns, and trending recent price action, the position appears to have investor confidence. The implied volatility surface suggests potential for continued upward momentum.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility metrics indicate a bearish outlook, with significant volatility around the $50 strike price. Market sentiment could turn negative, driven by potential regulatory actions and broader market corrections.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased volatility due to regulatory news (30%),

2. Sustained rally on strong sector performance (40%),

3. Market correction affects price negatively (30%). These estimates consider the return and volatility surfaces.


Trading Oracle: A debit spread (Helium Long Volatility) at a $50 call/put strike price expiring in 60-90 days minimizes risk while targeting potential gains from volatility. Focus on historical price momentum and implied volatility patterns. Consider a semi-bullish outlook.


June 21, 2024


Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index Forecast

FCOM      Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index











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SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (0.98)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FCOM



OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.0)


ADC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADC  Agree Realty (0.0)


SNOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNOW  Snowflake (-0.0)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FCOM



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.94)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.95)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.97)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.98)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)





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