FLIC Forecast


Bullish Case: FLIC's high dividend yield and solid asset base may appeal to income-focused investors, potentially offsetting recent price decline.


Bearish Case: Decreasing earnings, negative analyst outlook, and weak historical returns suggest further downside risks, particularly in a challenging rate environment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued earnings decline (-30%) due to rising interest expenses. Probability: 60%.

2. Dividend cut announcements (-20%). Probability: 50%.

3. Improvement from unsustainable low valuation (+20%). Probability: 30%.


Trading Oracle: Bearish outlook with rising implied volatility suggests executing credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility). Optimal strategy: Sell 07/19/2024 10.00 Puts for premium collection. Limited downside if prices decline, high probability of profit with market-neutral to bearish stance.


June 27, 2024


First Of Long Island Forecast

FLIC      First Of Long Island












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