Bullish Case: FOLD could capitalize on strong pipeline developments, especially following the patent resolution with Teva, which boosts market confidence and may drive price upward towards $15.

Bearish Case: Concerns over declining historical returns and high implied volatility suggest potential price pressures, with risks of further investor sentiment decline, possibly pushing shares below $8.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of positive regulatory developments leading to revenue growth and price increases.
• 25% chance of continued market skepticism impacting returns, driving prices down to $8.
• 20% likelihood of volatility spikes leading to sharp, unpredictable price movements.
• 15% chance of negative earnings impacting share price, resulting in further declines.
• 10% chance of stable growth around $10 amidst market fluctuations.

Trading Oracle: Considering current implied volatility skew, a bullish debit spread is advisable: buy the FOLD Jan 2025 $11 call and sell the $14 call. This maximizes upside with manageable risk, targeting gains around key upcoming earnings catalysts while leveraging high volatility. Stay vigilant around market news.

December 13, 2024